Increasing access to electricity in African countries can come at an environmental cost, research reveals
The study of Rwanda's experience identifies a 'sustainability paradox'
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Improving electricity networks in Sub-Saharan African countries can lead to a decline in renewable energy resources and increased greenhouse gas emissions, according to new research.
The study found that Rwanda’s 2016 National Electrification Strategy (NES) – which led to a significant increase in access to electricity for the country’s population – had a serious environmental trade-off. And the authors say that their findings should act as a warning for other Sub-Saharan African countries considering a similar move.
Synthetic Control Method
Researchers from the University of Stirling and, in Spain, the University of Seville and Loyola University Andalucia, studied energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions and people’s accessibility to electricity in 42 African countries between 2000 and 2020. Data was sourced from the World Bank.
Since it was impossible for researchers to know how Rwanda would have fared without implementing the NES, the team used a technique called the Synthetic Control Method to create a "counterfactual" or a "could-have-been" scenario if the policy had not been implemented.*
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Senior Lecturer in Finance
Rwanda stands out among African countries for the success of the NES. However, the NES required large-scale infrastructure projects and that leads to higher emissions as roads are built, cement is produced, and machinery and transport are used.
Access to electricity - measured as a percentage of the population with electric power - is considered a fundamental indicator of a nation’s development and the wellbeing of citizens, while the percentage of renewable energy consumption is a key metric for gauging a country’s progress towards sustainable energy use.
Following the introduction of the NES, which was designed to promote economic growth in Rwanda, almost 50% of the population had access to electricity, compared to about 23% in 2015.
However, while increasing renewable energy was one of the NES’s objectives, that failed to happen. This is because Rwanda historically relied heavily on biomass, such as firewood and charcoal, for household energy. In replacing traditional biomass with electricity derived from mixed sources, including fossil fuels, the total percentage of renewables dropped by more than four percentage points.
Sustainability paradox
The authors call this the sustainability paradox, where accelerated access coincides with a fall in renewable energy share, and a heavier carbon footprint.
Dr Kevin Campbell, of the University of Stirling Business School, and a co-author of the report, said: “It is important not to regard this as a policy failure in Rwanda, but rather a consequence of rapid electrification. Rwanda stands out among African countries for the success of the NES. However, the NES required large-scale infrastructure projects and that leads to higher emissions as roads are built, cement is produced, and machinery and transport are used.
“These are important lessons for other Sub-Saharan African countries, who should beware the sustainability paradox of energy access and climate resilience.”
Assessing Rwanda’s National electrification strategy: Impact and trade-offs is published in Energy Economics.
*The Synthetic Control Method blended data from other African countries that did not implement a similar electrification plan but shared the same economic and energy trends. The policy impact was then measured by the divergence between the real Rwanda and this "synthetic" twin after 2016.
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