A Bayesian Perspective on Avalanche Decision-Making and the Relevance of Stability tests

Citation

Ebert P (2018) A Bayesian Perspective on Avalanche Decision-Making and the Relevance of Stability tests. In: International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings 2018, Innsbruck, Austria. ISSW 2018: International Snow Science Workshop, 07.10.2018-12.10.2018. Innsbruck: Montana State University, pp. 1334-1338. http://arc.lib.montana.edu/snow-science/item.php?id=2768

Abstract
In this paper, I explore a Bayesian perspective on avalanche decision-making. I motivate this general outlook by introducing a well-known cognitive bias, the base-rate fallacy, and show how a similar pattern applies to decision-making in avalanche-terrain when assessing the relevance of stability tests. I then present three theoretical lessons that emerge from adopting a Bayesian perspective to avalanche decision- making. I conclude by raising numerous challenges for avalanche educators when incorporating the Bayesian perspective into their curriculum and point to future research

Keywords
Bayesianreasoning;avalanchedecision-making;avalancheeducation;base-ratefallacy;snow science; risk management

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